Kelt Exploration Ltd.
KEL.TO (TSX: KEL) TSXAt a glance
- Up 28.6% over the past year; the S&P/TSX Composite rose 20.0%.
- P/E 39.1 — lower than 9% of Energy peers (89 companies).
- Market cap $2.14B; average daily dollar volume $8.6M over the past 3 months — High liquidity.
- Latest published plan: LONG on 2026-11-10 at $10.11 — still open.
- 1-year volatility 40.5% (annualized); largest fall from a peak over the past year -17.6%.
Price chart
Split- and dividend-adjusted. All three lines are rebased to 100 at the start of the range, so the chart compares moves, not prices. L marks a LONG plan, S a SHORT plan — each links to that session's day page.
Monthly closes (table version, last 5 years)
| Month | Close |
|---|---|
| 2021-12 | 4.82 |
| 2022-01 | 5.54 |
| 2022-02 | 5.75 |
| 2022-03 | 6.74 |
| 2022-04 | 6.63 |
| 2022-05 | 7.11 |
| 2022-06 | 6.12 |
| 2022-07 | 6.88 |
| 2022-08 | 6.29 |
| 2022-09 | 5.21 |
| 2022-10 | 5.89 |
| 2022-11 | 5.44 |
| 2022-12 | 5.01 |
| 2023-01 | 4.57 |
| 2023-02 | 4.70 |
| 2023-03 | 4.59 |
| 2023-04 | 4.95 |
| 2023-05 | 5.29 |
| 2023-06 | 5.59 |
| 2023-07 | 6.37 |
| 2023-08 | 7.02 |
| 2023-09 | 7.25 |
| 2023-10 | 7.88 |
| 2023-11 | 6.71 |
| 2023-12 | 5.72 |
| 2024-01 | 5.37 |
| 2024-02 | 5.85 |
| 2024-03 | 6.05 |
| 2024-04 | 6.25 |
| 2024-05 | 6.30 |
| 2024-06 | 6.37 |
| 2024-07 | 6.05 |
| 2024-08 | 6.24 |
| 2024-09 | 6.26 |
| 2024-10 | 6.53 |
| 2024-11 | 6.73 |
| 2024-12 | 7.02 |
| 2025-01 | 6.88 |
| 2025-02 | 6.26 |
| 2025-03 | 6.80 |
| 2025-04 | 5.59 |
| 2025-05 | 6.68 |
| 2025-06 | 7.34 |
| 2025-07 | 7.36 |
| 2025-08 | 6.72 |
| 2025-09 | 6.88 |
| 2025-10 | 6.67 |
| 2025-11 | 7.79 |
| 2025-12 | 7.67 |
| 2026-01 | 7.80 |
| 2026-02 | 8.68 |
| 2026-03 | 9.37 |
| 2026-04 | 10.05 |
| 2026-05 | 9.07 |
| 2026-06 | 8.75 |
| 2026-07 | 9.98 |
| 2026-08 | 10.60 |
| 2026-09 | 10.33 |
| 2026-10 | 11.81 |
| 2026-11 | 10.56 |
The Composite is proxied by XIU.TO (iShares S&P/TSX 60 Index ETF); the database holds no Composite index series. The sector fund is a fund, never the index.
Performance
Over the past year the stock is up 28.6% against +20.0% for the Composite — 8.6 points ahead.
| Metric | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | YTD | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock | +7.9% | -5.2% | +10.9% | +9.3% | +37.7% | +28.6% | +12.7% | +16.1% |
| Sector fund (XEG.TO) | +3.5% | -3.3% | +4.3% | +4.5% | +47.9% | +47.5% | +19.4% | +21.7% |
| Composite (XIU.TO, proxy) | +1.8% | +2.8% | -0.1% | +9.4% | +16.1% | +20.0% | +22.0% | +10.5% |
| Difference vs Composite | +6.1% | -8.0% | +11.0% | -0.1% | +21.6% | +8.6% | -9.3% | +5.6% |
3Y and 5Y are annualized from 3Y. The Composite is proxied by XIU.TO; the sector fund is iShares S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index ETF (XEG.TO).
Risk and trading
1-year volatility +40.5% (annualized); largest fall from a peak -17.6% (Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026); beta 0.36 against the Composite (2Y weekly).
| Volatility (1Y, annualized) | +40.5% |
| Maximum drawdown (1Y) | -17.6% (Oct 26, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026) |
| Beta (2Y weekly, vs Composite) | 0.36 |
| Average daily volume (3M) | 804,082 |
| Dollar volume (3M, average per day) | $8.6M |
| Liquidity | High (High: $1M or more a day; Moderate: $100K or more; Low: under $100K, by average daily dollar volume.) |
Valuation
P/E 39.1 — lower than 9% of Energy peers (89 companies). The sector median P/E is 14.5.
| Multiple | Value | Against sector peers |
|---|---|---|
| P/E (TTM) | 39.1 | Lower than 9% of peers (89 companies; median 14.5) |
| Earnings yield | 2.56% | — |
| P/B | 1.79 | Lower than 54% of peers (103 companies; median 1.94) |
| P/S | Not available: Not available — needs TTM revenue; see financials. | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.6 | Lower than 41% of peers (76 companies; median 6.7) |
| Dividend yield | 0.00% | — |
| Payout ratio | Not available: Not available — no stored dividend history yet. | — |
Each multiple is shown against the sector median of the pages' universe as a percentile: "lower than 25% of peers" means the value sits below 25% of them. Valuation multiples are from the Nov 12, 2026 snapshot, and are always printed with that date.
More: dividend rate and earnings yield
Dividend rate: Not available: No dividend rate in the snapshot. Earnings yield is earnings per share divided by price — the inverse of P/E.
Financials
Revenue $513.1M in 2025 (TTM $644.4M); net income $63.1M; free cash flow -$64.3M. Reporting currency: CAD.
| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | TTM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $613.4M | $495.6M | $468.4M | $513.1M | $644.4M |
| Gross margin | 50.3% | 37.3% | 28.7% | 24.5% | — |
| Net income | $158.8M | $86.0M | $45.4M | $63.1M | $57.0M |
| Free cash flow | -$11.6M | $528K | -$124.0M | -$64.3M | -$73.9M |
| Diluted shares | 192,014,000 | 194,506,000 | 196,756,000 | 199,805,000 | — |
Revenue by year
Free cash flow by year
| Cash | $90K |
| Total debt | $180.9M |
| Debt-to-equity | 0.16 |
| Operating margin (latest snapshot, Nov 12, 2026) | 15.2% |
Figures as reported in stored financials; reporting currency CAD. Operating margin is not stored per year, so the latest snapshot value is shown. TTM covers 2025-09-30, 2025-12-31, 2026-03-31, 2026-06-30.
Dividends and splits
Pays a 0.00% trailing dividend yield (as of Nov 12, 2026). No splits on record.
| Year | Dividend per share |
|---|---|
| Not available: No stored dividend history yet. | |
Trailing yield 0.00% is the stored key-stats snapshot value (as of Nov 12, 2026) — the dividend history itself is not stored yet, so no history table is shown.
| Date | Action | Ratio |
|---|---|---|
| Not available: No splits on record for this ticker. | ||
Next ex-dividend date: Not available: No stored ex-dividend dates for equities. Prices on the chart are split- and dividend-adjusted (no splits on record, so nothing to adjust).
Ownership and dilution
Insiders bought 0 times and sold 3 times in the 90 days to Nov 12, 2026. Shares outstanding grew 1.5% over 1 year.
| Insider buys (90 days) | 0 |
| Insider sell (90 days) | 3 |
| Shares outstanding change (1Y) | +1.5% |
| Shares outstanding change (3Y) | +4.1% |
| Held by insiders | 15.93% |
| Held by institutions | 34.18% |
Counts are by filing date. Holdings are from the key-stats snapshot (as of Nov 12, 2026).
Recent insider trades (6)
| Filing date | Type | Name | Shares | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 15, 2026 | OTHER | FRANKS (ALAN G) | 50,000 | 3.28 | $164K |
| Sep 15, 2026 | SELL | FRANKS (ALAN G) | 50,000 | 8.03 | $401K |
| Sep 15, 2026 | OTHER | MACARTHUR, DOUGLAS OWEN | 36,000 | 3.84 | $138K |
| Sep 15, 2026 | SELL | MACARTHUR, DOUGLAS OWEN | 36,000 | 7.86 | $283K |
| Sep 14, 2026 | OTHER | MACARTHUR, DOUGLAS OWEN | 14,000 | 3.84 | $54K |
| Sep 14, 2026 | SELL | MACARTHUR, DOUGLAS OWEN | 14,000 | 7.87 | $110K |
Peers
Peers in Energy, by market cap: XOM.TO, CVX.TO, CHEV.TO, ENB.TO, CNQ.TO, SU.TO, TRP.TO, IMO.TO.
| Ticker | Price | 1Y % | Market cap | P/E | EV/EBITDA | Div yield | 1Y vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM.TO | 30.31 | — | $902.96B | 17.5 | — | — | +28.6% |
| CVX.TO | 27.73 | — | $553.71B | 16.0 | — | — | +26.6% |
| CHEV.TO | 25.34 | — | $508.78B | 17.8 | — | — | — |
| ENB.TO | 68.57 | +1.3% | $152.83B | 23.8 | 15.8 | 5.69% | +18.0% |
| CNQ.TO | 70.04 | +54.3% | $142.54B | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.59% | +32.1% |
| SU.TO | 98.80 | +60.1% | $113.74B | 10.5 | 5.2 | 2.69% | +29.3% |
| TRP.TO | 92.04 | +22.8% | $95.88B | 24.8 | 16.7 | 3.83% | +19.1% |
| IMO.TO | 181.70 | +34.9% | $85.76B | 14.5 | 8.5 | 1.93% | +29.7% |
Each row links to its own page when one exists. Peer 1Y returns and volatility use raw closes; peer splits are unadjusted.
analiti.ca history
3 published plans: 0 wins, 1 losses, 2 open; average +1.02% per resolved plan (full ladder).
| Date | Side | Entry | Stop | First exit | Exits | Outcome (full ladder) | First exit | Hold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-06 | LONG | 10.01 | 9.38 | 10.43 | Exit 1 · 40% out 10.43 (+4.2%); Exit 2 · 30% out 10.86 (+8.5%); Exit 3 · 20% out 11.28 (+12.7%) | OPEN (4.98%) | WIN (4.20%) · Nov 11, 2026 | 32 |
| 2026-11-09 | SHORT | 9.84 | 10.46 | 9.42 | Exit 1 · 40% out 9.42 (+4.3%); Exit 2 · 30% out 9.01 (+8.4%); Exit 3 · 20% out 8.59 (+12.7%) | LOSS (-6.30%) · Nov 11, 2026 | LOSS (-6.30%) · Nov 11, 2026 | 32 |
| 2026-11-10 | LONG | 10.11 | 9.47 | 10.54 | Exit 1 · 40% out 10.54 (+4.3%); Exit 2 · 30% out 10.97 (+8.5%); Exit 3 · 20% out 11.40 (+12.8%) | OPEN (4.37%) | WIN (4.25%) · Nov 12, 2026 | 32 |
The full ladder is the headline method: 40/30/20% at the three exits, the last slice held to stop or end. First exit credits the whole position at the first exit level. Full history: the track record. Each plan's day page is linked from its date; the brief that day: brief, brief not published yet, brief not published yet.
Superstock score
No Superstock score published for this ticker. The score is the published Superstock screen score — nothing else.
Sector condition: Energy — Leading (as of Nov 5, 2026). Superstock screen.
Key dates
| Next earnings | Not available: No company release or exchange notice in the stored data — stored dates are Yahoo-sourced, so none is shown. |
| Last earnings | Aug 5, 2026 · EPS 0.22 |
| Next ex-dividend | Not available: No stored ex-dividend dates for equities. |
The next earnings date is shown only from the company's own release or an exchange notice, with a link. The stored last-earnings date is Yahoo-sourced.
Sources and data notes
| Block | Source | As of |
|---|---|---|
| prices, chart, performance, risk | daily_prices (Yahoo) | Nov 12, 2026 |
| valuation, market cap, ownership | yahoo_key_stats snapshot | Nov 12, 2026 |
| financials | financials (Yahoo) | Jun 30, 2026 |
| plans, resolutions | published entries-*.json + track-record.json | Nov 12, 2026 |
| insiders | insider_trades (SEDI filings) | Nov 12, 2026 |
| splits | Split inventory (interim table) | Nov 5, 2026 |
| sector condition | conditions-2026-11-05.json | Nov 5, 2026 |
| Superstock score | superstock_checks + superstock.json | Nov 12, 2026 |
Not available rules. A field older than its freshness limit shows "not available", never a stale number: prices, 3 trading days; fundamentals, 120 days after the fiscal period end plus 45 days. Valuation multiples are always printed with their snapshot date.
Data file: /data/t/KEL.TO.json · Markdown twin: /t/KEL.TO.md
Facts and published history only. Plans are generated by a quant model.